In my past life I was a meteorologist. I almost chose that path in this life. After dedicating three or four years studying tropical cyclogenisis side-by-side my other primary education coursework, including spending two summers tracking storms on my 14″x22″ Atlantic Ocean map, I know a thing or two about the development of tropical weather. Gustav had the potential to be big, but three days ago the science was against it becoming the next Katrina… yet the media wanted it to be so much more.
“You need to be scared,” Nagin said of the Category 4 hurricane tearing along Cuba’s western coast. “You need to be concerned, and you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans right now. This is the storm of the century.” Source.
The problem with Hurricane evacuations is that they take a lot of effort and have a huge economic impact. People don’t like doing them. Every two years or so people in some area will be urged to evacuate and then have the storm miss them by a bit or weaken before landfall. These people can’t survive the economic impact… the loss of work, the time away from home, the cost of hotels, food, and gas, so after six storms that miss them or weaken, they give up and decide to ride it out. Then, when fewer and fewer people leave… the big one hits. And you have a disaster like Katrina.
People need to be strongly encouraged to leave… every time. But Nagin’s ’storm of the century’ statement, only three years after the real ’storm of the century’ hit (I’d prefer, ’storm of the generation’) was just plain stupid. He succeeded in getting people out, props for that, but he made the likelihood of more staying behind next time far, far greater. His words will result in the people’s mistrust, and therefore, a less safe population next time, and the time after that.
This century’s most idiotic comment award goes to: New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.